Seems there are three potential scenarios here.
1) Tiger's back is fine... he's using that as an excuse if he doesn't get off to a reasonable start and has little chance to make the cut.
2) Tiger's back is fine. The 14-hr flight over left him stiff, then he slept on a different mattress at the resort where he's staying. Just an isolated situation that most likely had nothing to do with his previous back issues.
3) Tiger's back is not good. 7 rounds back from 2 back surgeries and a near 2-year hiatus and he's already having to WD from only his second official event of this season. It is becoming quite obvious that his back is so problematic that he can no longer tolerate more than a recreational level of golf.
I'm leaning more toward scenario three. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that his back was bothering him at Torrey last week but still tried to play through it.
If he withdraws from playing Riviera in two weeks, then it's not just spasms.
I don't expect him to retire any time soon, because he's still very much entangled with appearance fees, endorsement contracts, etc. not to mention how all of this ties into him continuing to develop and build his TGR brand.
As long as he can keep his name out in the forefront with the media, he loses very little of that needed exposure.