If Stenson putts the way he did at the Open/last year, then yes he has a decent shot at taking another, but the older he gets the tougher that becomes....part of the reason his major was so improbable. His ball striking is impressive. His putting has held him back other than last year or even the year before.
Splitting hairs with the other guys...my gut tells me to rule out DJ, but looking at his improved wedge play, I won't do it and he seems to get hot often and dare I say, been more consistent then the other 3...however the other 3 have more guts, but that has been narrowed by DJ with his major last year.
The other guy I want to rule out is Spieth...he seems to have leveled off some, and the three he is up against have tremendous length....I suspect Erin hills will be the longest major ever to date yardage wise, as I've heard it's capable of 8000+😵, but that does not deter him, remember he took Day to the wire at Whistling and Day drove the ball better than anyone I can remember of a major winner....that was eye popping numbers and accuracy. Day should have won by near double digits. Spieth seems to have a competitive edge over the other guys, and that is clutch putting.
To me Day and Rory are the obvious picks, but Rory seems to disappear from time to time and Day has been struggling some with injury... we'll see how he bounces back this year. His swing to me, as good as it is, seems to be the most 1 dimensional, he takes a lash at everything....how he maintains so much consistency is beyond me.
I think Spieth gets one, DJ will be on the leaderboard and have a chance, and the other 2 will be more of wild cards.
I have not looked at their records at birkdale or QH to see if there is a horse for either course....EH is a first time major venue...we all know The Masters....Spieth would be favored their slightly over Rory IMO...i forget how Day and DJ have faired there, other than they have not won a green jacket....yet. should be an exciting year....and if eldrick can get in the mix....it will be electric.