IMO....

Par4QC · 2021-04-19T15:44:09+00:00

The biggest problem in the U.S. today is..... $1,400 stimulus checks, $3,600 child tax credit and $300 unemployment check bonuses til Sep.. Prove me wrong...

Par4QC

rsvman2 I suspect that here in America there are just enough toulons that we might be screwed. Time will tell.

And those Toulons will keep the need for boosters coming also, which will give them more fodder for their barnburnings/stumpthumpings. 1 day, those will catch fire, and there will be less standing on them. 😉

johnnydoom

rsvman2 I need a logic lesson. How is the vaccine effective communally if it is not effective individually. That is what I don't understand and perhaps you can help me. If you take the vaccine and it works then it seems as though it wouldn't matter if someone else doesn't take it and gets sick. If the vaccine protects it seems as though the only people the sick person would affect are other unvaccinated people. If the vaccine doesn't protect individually how does having everyone vaccinated protect everyone if they are still individually susceptible to being infected? Not saying it can't be true, but it certainly seems about as counterintuitive as anything I've ever heard.

rsvman2

johnnydoom Not logic, but virology. The longer we allow the virus to continue to circulate, the more variants will arise, whuch will eventually make it so that the virus will learn to escape vaccine immunity. If we reach herd immunity it essentially shuts down spread so much that the virus can't mutate away from the immunity.

shokosugi

rsvman2 The longer we allow the virus to continue to circulate, the more variants will arise, whuch will eventually make it so that the virus will lear

A few questions...

How do the covid vaccines differ from ones that have been proven to stop transmissions like polio or smallpox?
How do the covid vaccines differ from the flu vaccine with respect to stopping infection and transmission?
Do you believe that flu vaccines are in the range of 30-60% effective and/or do you believe the covid vaccines are significantly more effective, even with the presence of variants?
Do you believe if we had enough booster flu shots, would it be theoretically enough to get herd immunity for the flu?
Is it possible that mitigation efforts can cause viral mutations either from our own immunity and antibodies, vaccine antibodies or even mitigation efforts like masks and social distancing? I'm wondering why the virus continues to mutate.
How fast does the virus mutate - faster than the time it would take to mass produce a booster?

I'm struggling with the idea too of herd immunity via covid vaccines if they can't give individual immunity. I'm also struggling with how the covid vaccines can be any more effective than the flu vaccine in terms of eradicating the covid virus. I'm also struggling with how the vaccines differ compared to medicine in its ultimate effect- reducing severe symptoms versus stopping transmissions and infection. It would seem if the vaccines were designed to stop infection then this would have been measured in the trials, but they weren't.

Sorry for all the questions, hopefully you can answer them.

johnnydoom

rsvman2 I’m still not sure how it can work with the virus circulating world wide and already so expansive. But I do appreciate your answer and will make an effort to comprehend it.

ptjn1201

There's a lot of incongruity from the politicians on this. IF the vaccines work, then vaccinated people don't need to wear masks. Virtually all of our politicians have been vaccinated, but most still go around wearing masks, even when they're not near anybody else. They're not protecting themselves, they're not protecting others. Now if the vaccines aren't really effective, then why the mobilization of the country and the billions of dollars spent to provide them for free?

Toulon

rsvman2 My mentioning the jabs was a bad idea

This. ^^^^^^^^^ Just bringing it up sends endorphins rushing...

Virology. This isn't typical virology. Is it typical to spend 88 days trialling a jab? The very things that we're seeing now with JnJ, AZ and quite frankly Pfizer and Moderna are the very things past trials have shown...and the past trials failed miserably.

We both know what we think on the "leaky vaccine" issue, but this one's got some boat-sinking sized holes going on.

I actually thought of you last night as I was reading. Was curious to know what you honestly thought about the idea/possibility of "recombination" with this virus. It's already happened, and I believe we're going to start hearing that word, IF we're not being spun as Bill Maher would say. Very curious what you think of the recombinant threat?

rsvman2

shokosugi I'm going to try to answer your questions. Bear in mind that I am typing on my cell phone, so there may be errors.
1) These vaccines differ from smallpox and polio vaccines in their construction. Smallpox vaccine was a weaker but similar virus that caused localized infection producing criss protection. There were two polio vaccines, one was a live, attenuated virus and the ther was a killed virus. The two main vaccines we are using right now for Covid are mRNA vaccines. Immunity produced by different types of vaccines may differ a little bit, but the end result is the same. Your question implies that you believe that the Covid vaccines do not protect against infection or spread in the same way, but all indications are that they actually do. Breakthrough symptomatic infection occurs with every vaccine ever made. We currently have no evidence to suggest that vaccinated people have spread the infection at all.
2) As far as I can tell, the Covid vaccines do not differ at all in the way they protect recipients and prevent transmission compared with flu vaccination except that they are more effective. This question also has an undertone that suggests that you believe the Covid vaccines will not keep vaccinees from spreading the disease to others. Again, we don't have evidence of secondary spread and I believe they actually do protect in precisely the same way. Messenging has been sent out saying that we can't prove a vaccinated person couldn't spread the disease.... this has been done outmof an abundance of caution and is not meant to imply that we think it will spread in this way.
3) efficacy of flu vaccination depends on a number of things, not least of which is how well the vaccine strain matches the circulating strain. In some years efficacy is as high as about 70% or higher, and in other years it is around 30%. There are also as many as four co-circulating strains every season, and efficacy across the four strains is generally not constant. In some years, for example, the vaccine could be 70% effective against the H1N1 strain but be 20% against one of the circulating B strains. The covid vaccines are much better than this, even against the currently identified variants.
4) It is unlikely we could ever get herd immunity for the flu because of its extraordinarily rapid spread, short incubation period, and rapid mutation rate, not to mention the possibility of production of wholly new viruses via coinfection in a mixing animal, which can happen because its genome is segmented. Coronaviruses do not have a segmented genome. The mlst important thing in containing flu and making flu epidemics better is protection of children, who largely drive the flu epidemic every year.
5) Mitigation efforts largely serve to slow down mutation, rather than drive it. That's because mutation is essentially a math problem. There is a fairly predictable rate of spontaneous mutation with genome replicaition. Therefore, the more rounds of replication occur, the more mutations will arise. Many of them will not result in any kind of advantage for the virus; these will not prevail and will die out. Some mutations are silent, which means that although the genome changes, the amino acid sequence of the virus does not. Those result in no change whatsoever.
If everybody got vaccinated, it is certainly possible that this could favor the survival of a particular mutant. The same thing could happen if everybody became infected, so it is not a feature of vaccination.
If the entire US population had been vaccinated prior to the appearance of the virus on our continent, mutations would be unable to arise and the pandemic would not have occurred at all (this is just a thought experiment, obviously). Successful mutation leading to a successful variant requires ongoing replication and, ideally for the virus, lots of it. Therefore, mitigation efforts such as distancing and masking would be expected to slow mutation rather than to speed it up.
6) The mutation rate has been estimated to be from 0.8% to perhaps 4.2% per 3200 patients, based on real world entire genome sequencing. America's rate is about half that of most other countries in the world. About a sixth of these mutations are nonsense mutations (result in petering out of the virus) and about 3% are silent (resulting in absolutely no change in the virus at all). Prospective mathematical modelling predicts about a 3.8% risk of any mutation in the 400th person infected sequentially.
The ability to stay ahead of or abreast of mutations using mRNA vaccines is far superior to what we have been able to do with flu, because it takes about 4-6 months to make a new flu vaccine but we could conceivably have a variant Covid vaccine within a few short weeks.

I hope this was helpful, even though it was a threadjack.

I'm not getting paid enough for this...........

shokosugi

johnnydoom I’m still not sure how it can work with the virus circulating world wide and already so expansive. But I do appreciate your answer and will make an effort to comprehend it.

I basically have the same question. I understand the concept of not wanting to allow the virus to circulate, I just don't understand how this can happen, based on what we know and what we have to try and do this (vaccines). Is the concept of herd immunity with respect to not eliminating the virus but rather eliminating the consequence of the virus? Basically, the hope is the vaccine will not eliminate the virus but if everyone is vaccinated then the virus will still be here, but no one will be getting sick from it, rendering it effectively eliminated in a sense. It's not gone, just insignificant, kind of like the flu for the majority of us - is this the end game?

Toulon

Doc.... I just want to say one thing because I just can't contain the thought. A true epiphany moment for me on level I don't have the time or desire to share here but...

When we were communicating just a moment ago, I spoke about how I like "referendum thinking" and despise OSFA thinking.

IE: A person has a bad experience with a race or sex or whatever and then everything is then filtered back through that experience. We call that RACISM, MISOGYNY, SEXISM, etc. It is the inability to separate things in one's mind. There are a lot of tentacles to this, but that is a basic idea above.

I related the above to what we see from fully tribalized and polarized polticial thinkers. It is destructive.

When it comes to THESE JABS to lump them in under "vaccines in the past" did this or that. That is still myopic because we've had miserable failures with some vaccines. Each vaccine needs to be given the referendum treatment but you, like so many, want to throw it under the umbrella of... it's a vaccine, therefore it is good. That is dangerous. Very dangerous. This vaccine has to be judged on it's own merits, period. Not on the merits of others. Will this jab end the pandemic? No. Will it completely protect you? No. Will your protection last? No. Can you transmit to people even those fully-vaccinated? Yes.

This vaccine is given way too much of the smallpox treatment due to nominal reasoning.

I pray to God we can judge this jab independently without trying to link it to the past. You might want to link it to some huge vaccine successes, which there are many. I would be inclined to link it to failures and there are many, for balance. This has to stand on its own.

This situation much more represents a TRIAL rather than a fully FDA approved vaccine that was studied for 10 years, or more. A jab that is like a trial shouldn't be afforded street cred of things that were actually FDA approved after 10 years or more of study but that's what we've been doing.

Begging for help on this despite your leanings. Give this one the referendum treatment.

colej

Par4QC

back to the original post (I think we have other threads for COVID talk). There are millions of good paying trade jobs still going unfilled everyday.

ive talked to some of our hiring managers and we always have ads out. We will bring candidates in on certain days a week and it might get to 20 interviews a week. Usually the first things we talk about are drug test and background checks. If you can’t pass a drug test just please get up and don’t waste our time. Over half the candidates usually walk out. Do you have I.D. Or a work visa to work in this country legally? 1/4 of the candidates will walk out. So it leaves us a very small group to hire from. How many of these work out? Not many at all as most can’t make it to work on time or every day.

I’ve heard the number might be 1-2 people out of that group of 20 actually make it through the 90 day probationary period.

seems like a lot of these people work on a day to day basis. Whatever it takes to live that week.

Par4QC

colej I just saw an ad on my Facebook feed for warehousing jobs. Starting pay is $13-13.75/hr. and you can work all the OT you want, every week. That's not killer money, for sure, but driving a forklift is not a hard job, and sitting on your ass(basically). Yet, I could not believe the comments posted about how much those jobs should pay/way too low for forklift drivers/etc.. No doubt, the posters are unemployed and drawing over $600/wk(IL).
I read 2 things into the ad.....#1 They are going to be short term positions due to the fact you can work all that OT....they want it done ASAP, so they can change over to a new run/different line. #2 You could make well over a grand/wk., while the job lasted, then you can take your lazy ass back to UC, for a longer term yet.
I realize this doesn't sound like much for a lot of areas, but I've worked for a hell of a lot less. And even the $18 jobs here are going unfilled. And they are all "dummy" jobs!! But, no one wants to grunt these days.

DC300

Par4QC Respectfully, you would have to be a dummy to take an $18/hr job right now. Unemployment in most states is ~$400/week. At one point you were being give an extra $600 (untaxed) to stay home, so you are getting $25/hr to stay home vs working 40hrs to get $18/hr at full tax rate. Now it’s down to a $300 bonus, but that’s still $700 a week or $17.50 an hour to not work and half of that is still untaxed, so you still LOSE money to work. Why would anyone give up 40 hours a week to lose pay? This has gone on for almost an entire year now. So what happens when people get the bonus taken away after being used to all that extra?

Homes/rents won’t be paid for.

Kids will go hungry.

People still won’t want to work for less than what they were getting so small businesses will either have to pay it or have holes.

The welfare crowd will simply pop out more kids and milk the system for more.

It’s a beautiful system to destroy the world, if you are into that sort of thing. I studied a lot of economics, the long term ramifications are never looked at with all these "emergency" measures, but what they will really do is create a financial crisis. Look just 3 years down the road when all the stuff I stayed above takes place as a backlash response to having less money than they want. The tax rate will have to increase not only to pay for the emergency measures, but worse, to take care of the people on the system. More small businesses will be gone, which employ the majority of Americans, so unemployment will be up, large corporations will be the only employers, they will follow the game and raise wages, cut benefits so we are dependent on the Government for healthcare and step 2 towards a full blown Commie system is in place. Now while all of this is happening, crime rates will continue to rise, as will gun deaths and the disarmament of the law abiding population will happen. The police AND military are already being pushed to disarm ((National guard disarmed in DC to "“prevent violence"), and apparently saving 2 lives from a stabbing means "“your next" to be charged with murder of a black person. The mob rule has started, without a major revolution, we may well be completely screwed. The sad truth is the "“right" won’t do anything until it’s too late because the lives they live are too comfortable to risk it getting messed up by pushing back.

mikeintopeka

A thread in a local business owner's site I'm on has a lot of complaints from others that applicants don't even show for their interviews when set up for an online meet or called into the business. They suspect they are getting resumes' from those on unemployment to keep getting milk from the teat and have no intention whatsoever of going back to work now.

I've become friends with a very successful destination restaurant owner that literally built it from the ground up. She made offers to numerous applicants at the end of telephone interviews as business returned to near-normal levels as soon as it was legal to reopen. She got so tired of 'thanks for the offer but I'm going to keep looking' crowd that she started reporting each of them to the State Department of Labor that they had a legit job offer to their resume' submission. All hell hit the fan when these resume stuffers were cut off unemployment benefits I love that feisty little lady. 2 can play the game - 1 did it as a concerned citizen the system was being defrauded.

Par4QC

mikeintopeka Signing up for/collecting UC is far too easy now. Nothing in person, all on internet. I doubt 1/100 'applied for' positions put down are even checked by the state workers, why should they.....they are also grossly underpaid, lol.
'Back in the day', collecting UC was as bad of a job as any.😁 Except you didn't get dirty as hell. Many times had to spend several hours, and maybe a couple days, just to get signed up, in person. And trust me, they checked everything, and the cross better be on every t and the dots on every i. Phone calls were not accepted as 'applying for'; in person only, and then again, could be a long wait in their lobby, just to see about that $1.50/hr. position.

Toulon

DC300

The crash is coming. Will make the warning of what was going to happen in 2008 actually happen, and then some.

Then...The Great Reset begins... Of course, it's only a conspiracy theory. 😂 Below is an actual compilation of statements made on video. You be the judge. It's less than 2 minutes. Thanks, WEF.

Par4QC

DC300 Respectfully, you would have to be a dummy to take an $18/hr job right now. Unemployment in most states is ~$400/week. At one point you were being give an extra $600 (untaxed) to stay home, so you are getting $25/hr to stay home vs working 40hrs to get $18/hr at full tax rate. Now it’s down to a $300 bonus, but that’s still $700 a week or $17.50 an hour to not work and half of that is still untaxed, so you still LOSE money to work. Why would anyone give up 40 hours a week to lose pay? This has gone on for almost an entire year now. So what happens when people get the bonus taken away after being used to all that extra?

When the money runs out, those jobs will not even be there for them to bitch about being "low pay". If you want long term income, the likes you are getting for free, you need to grab that op right now! You'll lose very little if you work the system of deductions. Got 4 kids?....claim the 6 deductions weekly instead of waiting for it to come back in the Spring. Those deductions are taken off the top. Then, sign up for the company program that let's you pay your bills(can't recall the exact name). That also comes off the top(no tax). You pay pennies on the dollar for taxes at that point.

Keep in mind also, that $18/hr. is (in this area) a shit load more than the unemployed were making before. Some quit working in order to get a raise.

I've kinda 'been around', in my life. I've been that person milking the UC system, back in '75-'76, bringing in $230/wk. UC + $100/wk. Union supplemental pay(12 mo.). The UC lasted for 78 weeks, and when I moved to an area where wages were the minimum wage, our rent dropped by almost 2/3, etc.. (I also got up to 241# because of it, but that's another story). I was lucky enough to be on recall to a very high paying job, and got that recall. That is not happening today. These are not Union jobs out there, and the people milking the layoffs/UC, will not be recalled anywhere. And they are not going to get any money past early Sept..
But, unemployment figures will look great for a lot of states, and the nation, after Sept.. Welfare rolls, not so much.

sdandrea1

DC300 Why would anyone give up 40 hours a week to lose pay?

To have a job where they could contribute to their employer, society, and maybe start a career with growth? To not sit at home on their ass, sucking off the taxpayer's tit? I dunno.....just a thought. 😉

DC300

Toulon of course it’s a conspiracy theory... the sad truth is people are too dumb to realize there is still a ruling class and the rest of us are just pawns. The problem is there are too many pawns willing to fight at the moment. Many of the same figure heads talk about population control and the country who actively practices it, released the virus, shocking. The virus did its job, took out the old, and their knowledge of history with them. The education system is being "fixed" to eliminate the teachings of history, so it won’t be an issue anymore.

They got rid of Trump and his outlandish talk of people working for a living and deserving freedoms the country was founded on and paint all those notions as racist, white privilege. Even going so far as to impeach him AGAIN, knowing full well he would be out of office and it wasn’t Constitutionally justifiable, but they wanted to block him from running again, because he could unwind their plans again.

The ground work to follow through on a global Communist Manifesto is in place. The citizens are more reliant on the Government for every aspect of their life than ever before, there is a common fear and enemy with no actual way to eliminate it (Covid) and in the US they have taken it a step further to target the average white male, vilifying them for wanting to make money, take care of their family and be left alone, just like the Jews of Germany. The borders are open and the illegals are allowed to vote, furthering the goal of over riding the working class and pushing us into complete reliance on the Government to "fix" the problems they intentionally create. It’s essentially the start of the Hunger Games and the dumb asses of the modern education system just believe it’s all a free lunch.

So yep, I’m a conspiracy theorist for being able to read and comprehend history and the message from the media, controlled by the Government, says I’m the bad guy. Hopefully, there are enough of us that would rather be dead than Red when it comes to it.

KCee

Toulon One of my pet peeves in life is ANYONE who is a dyed in the wool... "fill in the blank". Honestly, those people scare me as much as they annoy me.

Me too. I've voted for Democrats and Republicans and try to look at the candidates, but many will say "vote the party, not the candidate". I suppose that is much simpler, but I can't bring myself to move that far Left or Right.

DC300

KCee I feel at this point, no matter who I’m voting for, I’m voting party lines, which is exactly what Washington warned would happen. I can’t, in good conscience vote for a Democrat, because they will add to their numbers on key votes. The party itself has spun radically far left and the principals need to be stopped, not aided. Also, in good conscience, I can’t vote for many of the Republicans either, because they are a bunch of 2 faced bitches with no backbones to stand for their promises. I would LOVE a legitimate 3rd party candidate to stand a chance, but voting for one in this day in age is a wasted ballot.

shokosugi

rsvman2

Thank you sir, your time is appreciated! Come to the other thread to discuss further. I'm sure I'll have more questions after I read your post thoroughly.

Toulon

rsvman2 In some years efficacy is as high as about 70% or higher, and in other years it is around 30%

CDC data from last 15 years showing highest efficacy at 60% and lowest 10%. Only 5 years out of 15 was efficacy 50%, or higher.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html

and from CDC.gov common questions:

The below didn't happen with small pox or polio meaning annual shots. Annual shots puts this into the same realm as the flu in that regard. These vaccines are on a countdown clock unlike polio and smallpox.

From CNBC:

Par4QC

rsvman2 I am so mad about this threadjack, I am going to copy/paste this so possibly 100's of others may read it!!

(I'm not telling them it was a threadjack though. 😲)

KCee

rsvman2 Doesn't this only hold true if the earth is round? 😜

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