Well... DJ, Spieth, McIlroy, Day and Rahm lead the top-5 according to the Vegas bookies.

Am I crazy to pick Justin Thomas? Seems to be playing some pretty good golf this season, flying well under the radar. And not necessarily a short, low-ball hitter at that.

What say you?

I think the course will be very enjoyable to see from the television perspective, as in nothing like the disaster that was Chambers Bay. Still not taking the under on Ms. Murphy not fucking up the awards ceremony on Sunday, mind you. As far as I know, alcohol is still served in Wisconsin.

    Tinker

    Man... you definitely don't mind going out on a limb! I admire that. 😉

      I like DJ...especially where they cut the fescue back and the fairways are more generous than usual.

      Yes PaPlaya...out on a limb too!

      This is pretty much a new venue for everyone,so I don't see anyone having course knowledge as an edge.
      Seems like a bombers type track,so I think someone like DJ or John Rahm should have a distinct advantage,
      IF they keep it out of the long hay!

      I like DJ too. There was an interview with Topeka homeboy Gary Woodland in our local paper. As many of you know, his wife miscarried one of two twins she was carrying so Gary is spending as much time with her during her doctor's ordered home rest. So, he's been playing a limited schedule and hadn't been to Erin Hills until Sunday. DJ took him under his wing and shared his 'book' and gave him a lot of tips.

      I don't know who else was in their group but on several holes, including the par 5's and 500 yard par 4s, DJ knew if you could hit a line and bomb over the hills, you were left with short shots on in. On one par 5, DJ showed him a 'short cut' line and said the ball needed to carry at least 330 yards. They both nailed it and had 8 irons to the green (with an added bonus they found a more forgiving landing area/fairway). The other person in their group couldn't carry the ball that far, had to play it more routine, and had a fairway wood in his hands hitting 2.

      A big hitter will win this week.

      I'm with Brandel Chamblee and going with Ricky Fowler.

        azgreg

        You put two strikes in one post. Ya got one left.
        LOL

          Anybody think a guy like Gary Woodland has an outside shot?

          I didn't think so, either.

            rsvman rsvman
            an hour ago

            Anybody think a guy like Gary Woodland has an outside shot?

            I didn't think so, either.

            He's only won twice on tour, both limited fields, and his best win was Internationally with Kuchar in a 2 man best- ball World Cup. I don't see him being focused enough with the loss of the baby and his wife at home to keep his mind on the game to be in the hunt this week. He's back with Butch Harmon and spent a couple of days in Vegas with him last week. Woodland will win again, but not this year with all of the outside distractions he has personally, IMO.


              The US Open isn't void of fluke-ish winners. See Webb Simpson back in 2012 at Olympic Club as the most recent example. Perhaps even Geoff Ogilvy back in 2006 at Winged Foot would be a more sufficient example, who shot +2 in the final round and backed himself into a major victory while watching the leaders behind him implode under the pressure. At least Webb fired an under-par final round, although it's worth noting that Furyk choked on his vomit coming in that Sunday. But still... Webb played great that week, so maybe it wasn't that big of a fluke.

              I'm sticking with Justin Thomas. He's as good a pick as anyone, I reckon. But with wide fairways and length being rewarded for those who can keep it somewhere out of the fescue, it otherwise comes down to putting.

              Hopefully, more than anything else, we don't see the type of debacle that happened last year at Oakmont with the greens being cut so close that a gust of wind causes the ball to move.

              The USGA conducts the tournament. They should not be putting themselves in a position to pick the winner.

              I still feel very confident in assuming that whomever wins, Mrs. Murphy still butchers the closing awards ceremony.

              sdandrea1

              You could do worse, for sure. Duff seems to be playing in a nice groove at the moment. Fowler ain't a bad pick either, although his usual MO is to shit the bed if he's had 3 solid rounds.

              Should be interesting. Hard to pick one over another, not knowing a lot about the course and how it might play. Spieth seems to think that 5-under to 10-under could win. I'm guessing maybe 3-4 under, maybe?

              Who knows.... it depends on how the scoring is for the first two days, and how the USGA sets up the layout for the weekend, knowing how desperately they cling to the standard of level-par winning their tournament.

                Justin Rose is playing well and is very straight of the tee. I think he will do well here.

                I’m still sticking to the premise the contenders will substantially all be long knocks off the tee. This course is going to be the LONGEST in MAJOR history at 7740 yards (the USGA chose not to play from the tips at 8000 yards). There is rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday that could reduce yardage off the tees under soft conditions but, on the other hand, could make the greens more receptive to long iron approach shots. I understand there are several holes that require a pretty good hike from green to the next tee box so I don’t see a nostalgic favorite in contention due to the grind.

                I’m sticking with DJ. (The USGA has already ruled all bunkers and sandy blow outs are played as hazards so DJ doesn't have to make as many decisions.)

                Editor’s Note: The above analysis was provided by a guy that failed to win any of the numerous prizes awarded in the Master’s Pick Em.

                  The rain will make the fairways softer and thus while curtailing distance will keep more drives in the fairways instead of the fescue. Whoever has the most fairways in regulation this week has a great chance to win.
                  I guess I have to go with DJ as well. I never know which Rory will come to play so I won't pick him.

                  Maybe a guy like Brooks Koepka can pull it out? He hits it plenty far. Another guy to watch out for is Jon Rahm.

                  By the way, not that anyone is picking him, but I just heard that Mickelson is not going to play. Going to his daughter's graduation instead.