The US Open isn't void of fluke-ish winners. See Webb Simpson back in 2012 at Olympic Club as the most recent example. Perhaps even Geoff Ogilvy back in 2006 at Winged Foot would be a more sufficient example, who shot +2 in the final round and backed himself into a major victory while watching the leaders behind him implode under the pressure. At least Webb fired an under-par final round, although it's worth noting that Furyk choked on his vomit coming in that Sunday. But still... Webb played great that week, so maybe it wasn't that big of a fluke.
I'm sticking with Justin Thomas. He's as good a pick as anyone, I reckon. But with wide fairways and length being rewarded for those who can keep it somewhere out of the fescue, it otherwise comes down to putting.
Hopefully, more than anything else, we don't see the type of debacle that happened last year at Oakmont with the greens being cut so close that a gust of wind causes the ball to move.
The USGA conducts the tournament. They should not be putting themselves in a position to pick the winner.
I still feel very confident in assuming that whomever wins, Mrs. Murphy still butchers the closing awards ceremony.